Weekly review of the hottest crude oil market posi

2022-08-02
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Weekly review of crude oil market: favorable factors support the oil price to rise again

(September 3-september 7). Although the Atlantic hurricane weakened, OPEC member states generally did not support the increase in production. The U.S. crude oil inventory and gasoline inventory continued to decline, and the international oil price rebounded by 9% in the past two weeks. Warnings of geopolitical tensions briefly sent oil prices soaring to near record highs. By the end of September 7, the settlement price of wti-9 closed at $76.30/barrel on Friday, up $2.94/barrel compared with the middle of last week; Brent-9 settled at US $74.77/barrel on Friday, up US $2.87/barrel on a year-on-year basis

Fundamentals: according to the latest monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world's average daily oil demand this year is 86million barrels and will reach 88.2 million barrels in 2008. According to the forecast of the report, the average daily oil demand of the member countries of the organization for economic cooperation and development in 2007 was 49.5 million barrels. The technical parameters of the horizontal tensile testing machine increased by 0.6% over last year. In 2008, it will be 50.3 million barrels, an increase of about 1.7% over this year. For cylinders with an average daily oil demand of 36 small points in non OECD countries this year, it is better to add 500000 barrels of V-shaped units, an increase of 3.5% over last year. According to the report, due to the resumption of partially interrupted oil production in Iraq and Nigeria and the increase of oil production by the organization of petroleum exporting countries, the world's average daily oil production increased by 1.1 million barrels to 85.3 million barrels in July this year

the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) also expressed optimism about the global oil consumption in the third and fourth quarters of this year. It is believed that the main global oil demand in the second half of the year will mainly come from China, the United States and the Middle East. Although the US subprime debt problem and the resulting poor performance of the stock market have dragged down the commodity market, the EIA does not believe that this will change the overall shortage of supply in the oil market in the second half of the year

in the global oil market, the constraints of OPEC output, the continuous growth of consumption and the moderate increase of output of non OPEC countries all contribute to the firmness of oil prices in the second half of the year. Within this year, due to the reduction of oil output and the consumption of National Treasury Deposits of OECD members representing developed countries, the balance of supply and demand in the oil market will remain tight. Even in 2008, the oil market will remain tense

recently, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and US Senate Banking Committee Chairman Dodd met urgently to discuss how to deal with the subprime crisis and the resulting market fluctuations. Dodd told the media after the meeting that Bernanke has agreed to use all available tools to reshape the financial market. The special engineering plastic index has higher comprehensive performance and is stable at a temperature above 150 ℃ for a long time

In order to solve this contradiction, based on the experience between Beijing and Tianjin, after careful investigation and research, Nanjing Metro took the lead in deciding to adopt a new constant tension spring compensator instead of the ratchet automatic compensation device in China to meet the requirements of the environment

inventory: the US energy information administration believes that as of the week of August 31, the US crude oil and gasoline inventory decreased while the distillate oil inventory increased. The total commercial oil inventory in the United States decreased by 5.4 million barrels, which was in the first half of the average level over the years and still higher than 1billion barrels. Compared with the historical data of the same period, the crude oil inventory decreased by 3.9 million barrels compared with the previous week, still higher than the upper end of the average range of the same period over the years, 0.5% lower than that of the same period last year; Gasoline inventory fell by 1.5 million barrels, far below the lower end of the average range over the same period of the previous year, 8.8% lower than the same period last year. Distillate oil inventory increased by 2.3 million barrels, which was in the first half of the average range over the years, 8.6% lower than the same period last year. According to the American Petroleum Institute, as of the week ended August 31, the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased and gasoline and distillate oil inventory increased. US crude oil inventory was 32670.4 million barrels, down 4.826 million barrels from the previous week; The total gasoline inventory in the United States was 19685.8 million barrels, an increase of 1.613 million barrels over the previous week; Distillate oil inventory was 131.953 million barrels, an increase of 3.343 million barrels; The residual oil inventory was 37.015 million barrels, a decrease of 1.374 million barrels

on the demand side: the average daily demand for petroleum products in four days was 21.282 million barrels, 0.2% lower than that in the same period last year; Gasoline demand was 0.5% higher, and the demand for distillate oil was the same as that of the same period last year; Among the weekly demand, the daily demand for gasoline in the United States was 9.577 million barrels, 49000 barrels lower than the previous week; The daily average demand for distillate oil was 4.215 million barrels, 16000 barrels higher than the daily average of the previous week

Outlook: Although the end of the Labor Day holiday in early September means the end of the summer driving peak, the market has not led to a decline in demand. At present, it is in the high incidence period of Atlantic hurricanes, and geopolitical factors tend to escalate again. In addition, major inventories in the United States are declining, and OPEC is not willing to increase production at this time. These factors lead to certain room for oil price rise in the future

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