Weekly view of machinery industry: construction machinery "these eight years"
weekly view of machinery industry: construction machinery "these eight years"
China Construction Machinery Information
left hand cycle, right hand growth. Downstream changes and plate performance: the industrial economy is stable as a whole. In December, the industrial economic performance was generally stable: the terminal improvement demand in the early stage had been transmitted to the middle reaches, the production and sales of cement, chemical industry, machinery and other industries were all positive, and the growth rate of coal consumption for power generation, which was highly related to the overall performance of industrial production, only slightly fell. In December, China's PMI fell back to 51.4, but it is still expanding; The new order index leveled at 53.2, pointing to relatively stable domestic demand. Last week (December 26 to December 30, 2016), the mechanical equipment industry outperformed the market, with a weekly cumulative excess return of 0.491% and a 16 year cumulative excess return of -4.70%. Among the sub industries, heavy machinery, engineering machinery, mechanical basic parts, refrigeration and air conditioning equipment, textile and clothing equipment and metallurgical mining equipment have achieved excess positive returns, of which heavy machinery has achieved a weekly cumulative excess return of 4.18%
industry leader's view:
left hand cycle, right hand growth. Against the background of rising oil price volatility, stable infrastructure investment and month on month improvement in manufacturing investment, we are optimistic about the overall 1q market of machinery. From the point of view of the recommended block and target with too long fender insulation time, we tend to balance the configuration of cycle and growth: 1) cycle: first, we are firmly optimistic about the opening of the "big cycle" of rail transit, and pay attention to the release of catalysts such as "railway reform", acceleration and bidding during the 1q policy briefing period. Secondly, such star products, which are optimistic about the rising trend of oil prices, can be said to be favored by thousands of people in the marginal improvement of oil service and coal chemical industry, as well as the relative income of the coal machinery and construction machinery sector. After the first wave of rise, the sector entered the stage of selecting individual stocks; 2) Growth: 1q is still firmly optimistic about the two booming branches of Intelligent Manufacturing - 3C automation and logistics automation. Among them, the suppliers of 3C automation entering the apple industry chain determine the time, and there are many early-stage plate callback, which is worthy of special attention
eight years of construction machinery. As one of the most powerful varieties of mechanical equipment, the construction machinery sector experienced a complete "peak trough recovery" cycle from 2008 to 2016. From the end of the second quarter of 2016, the sales volume of new machines rebounded + the utilization rate of equipment rebounded. We believe that there are not only demand side factors such as the landing of PPP infrastructure projects and the price rise of bulk commodities, but also supply side factors such as poor maintenance of used cars and digestion of export sales. In the past 17 years, we believe that the recovery is sustainable, especially in 1h17, the performance will continue to be strong, but we prefer to judge that this round of construction machinery is rebounding rather than reversing, and the sales volume of new machines will approach the reasonable renewal sales volume on the low base (taking excavators as an example, the reasonable replacement demand is about 100000 units, and the current annual sales volume is 70000 units), but this process may be gradual rather than explosive one-step. Therefore, we are optimistic about the relative returns of the sector (it is recommended to pay attention to Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion). Different from the "agitation" based on macro relaxation expectations in the downward bottoming stage of the industry 13 years later, this round of construction machinery market has fundamental support, and this round is highly expected. From the perspective of possible differentiation of fundamentals, we suggest to pay attention to: 1) the forklift industry with relatively small ownership and relatively healthy balance sheet has also continued to exceed expectations since October, and the performance of leading Anhui Heli has exceeded the industry; 2) High quality targets of the value chain, such as Hengli hydraulic, a component manufacturer of excavator chain, and leasing construction machinery of chain
in 2016, the opening of the environmental impact assessment approval of coal chemical industry will drive 100 billion investment, and relevant equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit. We believe that the investment in coal chemical projects is mainly constrained by economic and environmental conditions, and the prosperity of the industry is gradually improving. According to our statistics, in 2016, there were 6 projects approved and 2 projects under review in the environmental impact assessment of the coal chemical industry, including coal liquefaction, coal to gas, coal to olefin, coal to oil and other projects. The overall planning investment exceeded RMB 200billion, which is the "opening" year since the tightening of the approval of coal chemical projects in the second half of 2014. In addition, on December 28, General Secretary Xi gave important instructions on the completion and commissioning of Shenhua Ningxia coal to liquid demonstration project, which showed that the attitude of the government and senior management towards the development of coal chemical industry was changing, That is, from the "comprehensive restriction" in 2015 to the "orderly liberalization" in 2016. On the other hand, the upward trend of international oil prices has gradually taken shape, and the average oil price in 2017 is expected to reach $60/barrel, which will also improve the prosperity of the coal chemical industry. We believe that during the "13th five year plan" period, domestic equipment manufacturing enterprises are expected to benefit from the recovery of investment in the coal chemical industry, with great performance flexibility. It is recommended to pay attention to hang Yang, tianwo technology and Shaangu power
Zhou key recommendation:
nori shares: the acquisition of Wuxi Zhongding was approved, and the intelligent logistics business is expected to explode; 3C automation will enter an active period in the first quarter, and equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to: Jinsheng precision and Tanaka precision machinery; Equity incentive provides performance safety cushion, and global resource integration is expected to blossom and bear fruit in 2017. It is recommended to pay attention to: Chunhui shares; Jerry shares: if the oil price continues to rise, the fracturing business is expected to recover; Construction machinery: Pb is an attractive and stagnant variety of construction machinery; Zhengmei machinery: the profits of coal enterprises drive the business recovery of coal machinery manufacturers, and the hydraulic support leader has high performance flexibility; The forklift industry continues to grow faster than expected, and the industry leader performs better. It is recommended to pay attention to: Anhui Heli; The recovery of downstream orders is beneficial to the main suppliers of coal chemical equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to hang Yang
risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, market fluctuation risk
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